Summer 2012 Box Office Predictions

[Wolfe]

We need to do this again, for reasons that are not clear to me.

Just the big ones:

THE AVENGERS: $500 million
DARK SHADOWS: $200 million
THE DICTATOR: $80 million
BATTLESHIP: $175 million
MEN IN BLACK 3: $225 million
SNOW WHITE AND THE HUNTSMAN: $180 million
PROMETHEUS: $100 million
ROCK OF AGES: $120 million
THAT'S MY BOY: $90 million
ABRAHAM LINCOLN: VAMPIRE HUNTER: $60 million
BRAVE: $250 million
G.I. JOE: RETALIATION: $140 million
THE AMAZING SPIDER-MAN: $275 million
THE DARK KNIGHT RISES: $450 million
THE BOURNE LEGACY: $130 million
TOTAL RECALL: $150 million
THE EXPENDABLES 2: $110 million

[DerickA]

You saw AVENGERS, so it's not fair for you to rank it, right? Although I'm probably just trying to take things away from you. Batman is gonna beat AVENGERS, I think. I guess that will be the big bet of the summer

[DerickA]

THE AVENGERS: $430 million
DARK SHADOWS: $180 million
THE DICTATOR: $70 million
BATTLESHIP: $220 million
MEN IN BLACK 3: $130 million
SNOW WHITE AND THE HUNTSMAN: $60 million
PROMETHEUS: $200 million
ROCK OF AGES: $90 million
THAT'S MY BOY: $110 million
ABRAHAM LINCOLN: VAMPIRE HUNTER: $100 million
BRAVE: $250 million
G.I. JOE: RETALIATION: $240 million
THE AMAZING SPIDER-MAN: $190 million
THE DARK KNIGHT RISES: $600 million
THE BOURNE LEGACY: $75 million
TOTAL RECALL: $50 million
THE EXPENDABLES 2: $170 million

[Wolfe]

I would have bet on Batman before, but after seeing AVENGERS, I think it's going to be super huge. I originally put down $600 million before going a bit more conservative. And THE DARK KNIGHT was such a lightning-in-a-bottle movie that I think a Jokerless DKR won't match it. Whereas AVENGERS feels like it could be a lightning-in-a-bottle movie in that way.

[Wolfe]

Your guess for TOTAL RECALL made me laugh out loud and then go outside to blow on a dandelion so it comes true.

[DerickA]

What did you think of TOTAL RECALL again? I forgot.

What is your definition of "lightning in a bottle"? I give Batman the edge because movies that come out at the beginning of the summer are bombarded with all the other releases for the rest of their run and Batman is late enough to enjoy some dominant weeks post release. It's the magic date that Warner Brothers saved Harry Potter with in 2007.

[DerickA]

I'm a little worried about DARK SHADOWS. AVENGERS might steamroll it. By all accounts, it looks to have Burton at his Burtoniest, and Depp at his Deppiest with a good ad campaign that seems to be everywhere. If it fails, it won't be because it didn't try.

What I'm saying is, if this is 2008's clone summer than DARK SHADOWS has the potential to SPEED RACER. Not as horribly, but in that same bad post-Marvel spot.

[Wolfe]

What did you think of TOTAL RECALL again? I forgot.

What is your definition of "lightning in a bottle"? I give Batman the edge because movies that come out at the beginning of the summer are bombarded with all the other releases for the rest of their run and Batman is late enough to enjoy some dominant weeks post release. It's the magic date that Warner Brothers saved Harry Potter with in 2007.

RECALL was almost intolerably boring and generic.

Basically a movie that captures the public's fancy more than your average blockbuster to the point of becoming a cultural phenomenon and making stupid money. Like a BATMAN '89, JURASSIC PARK, TITANIC and AVATAR sort of movie. DARK KNIGHT was one of those and I think AVENGERS might end up being one as well. RISES could be too, but the lack of Joker (which was basically the reason why the movie overperformed so much) makes me think it might fall short of that (while still being really huge).

[Wolfe]

I'm a little worried about DARK SHADOWS. AVENGERS might steamroll it. By all accounts, it looks to have Burton at his Burtoniest, and Depp at his Deppiest with a good ad campaign that seems to be everywhere. If it fails, it won't be because it didn't try.

What I'm saying is, if this is 2008's clone summer than DARK SHADOWS has the potential to SPEED RACER. Not as horribly, but in that same bad post-Marvel spot.

I don't really have any idea how DARK SHADOWS will do. I'm only assuming it will do well because Depp + Burton usually equals $$$$$$$ in movies not about bad directors or demon barbers. I have a hunch that BATTLESHIP could be the SPEED RACER of this May, since I don't know anyone who's excited about it or doesn't think it's a dumb idea.

[DerickA]

The BATTLESHIP trailers are gaining momentum, I think. I'm on board. LOL!

Your Batman comments are sort of internet infuriating me, but then I remember everyone else's stupid Batman comments before DARK KNIGHT came out and how I made Dalton eat a hat and then I feel better.

[Wolfe]

The Ledger/Joker factor was absolutely the reason THE DARK KNIGHT went through the roof. The new movie having a much less colorful and iconic main villain played by a still-living actor could make it a more earthbound hit.

[ExpendablesFan]

Regardless of how much money Dark Knight Rises makes the fact is, Wolfe will see it before Derick.

[DerickA]

The Ledger/Joker factor was absolutely the reason THE DARK KNIGHT went through the roof. The new movie having a much less colorful and iconic main villain played by a still-living actor could make it a more earthbound hit.

Yeah but then you said that having a dark smeary homeless looking Joker was he final nail in Nolan's Bat coffin.

[Wolfe]

Yeah but then you said that having a dark smeary homeless looking Joker was he final nail in Nolan's Bat coffin.

I didn't take it to that extreme, but that was definitely cause for alarm at the time.

[Donnacha]

Most people didn't like "greasy joker" at first; Ledger's death helped temper that perception, and when the second trailer came out ("to them... you're just a freak... like me") most people were hooked. Anyone left were won over by that five-minute opening.

Bane has not had any of that.