Conan on TBS

[Dalton]

You have an odd way of discussing things. You present opinions as irrefutable facts. Anyway:

http://www.associatedcontent.com/article/2624155/conans_last_show_turns_into_ratings.html?cat=2

With ratings that high it seems that at least someone out there cares.

People always tune in for the finales of things.  Don't get me wrong, I love Conan and hate Jay.  But I never watched Conan.  As Richard Roeper said "If all the people so upset about Conan leaving had actually watched his show, he wouldn't be leaving".  I'm sorry, I know he had shitty lead ins but 2.5 million are basic cable numbers.  I would be very surprised if he wound up on Fox.  I see cable in his future.

And Jay will do fine.  Do you really think the people who watch his show on a regular basis care about this stuff?  On The Tonight Show Leno had 5 million viewers.  On The Jay Leno Show Leno had... 5 million viewers.

[Dobbin]

Not to play devil's advocate, and I love Conan, but it's a little easier to tell kids not to be cynical when your severance check is $45 million.

Well, he's right. That's a pretty amazing thing to have happen. But in any case,if Fox does as Dalton says and plays SIMPSONS reruns, he *still* collects royalties from those, no?

I think, though, more so than the internet-buzz of Leno being a douchebag (here's fun-- type "Jay Leno is" into Google and see the first bunch of lines of suggestions that drop down), that Neilsen-rating America may more be affected by the smell of failure on Leno.

Everyone knows he tanked, doing the EXACT same act (Jaywalking, Headlines, etc.) so seeing the exact same act an hour later, the spell may be broken. Leno had, for his #1 status, the benefit of riding Carson's wake for years before Carson's departure, and then naturally just going into the spot, where it was assumed he was the "go-to/default" choice of which to watch. He was the Coca-Cola to the others Mr. Pibb or Mountain Dew; stuff with dedicated loyalists, but not the same wide acceptance.

I don't know if you can step back into that role, after it has been shaken. I mean, you probably can, carrying the soda analogy; Coke's "New Coke" was a fiasco, but it recovered after going back to what people expected. But I think we're just assuming Leno's appeal is a constant for whoever out there actually likes him simply because we can't fathom it. Like, "hell, he sucked before and they watched him, they'll watch him again."

But look at, say, Bill Cosby. THE COSBY SHOW was an institution and all of America loved it like a relative. But when it stopped then he started another show, people couldn't really be bothered. Or even Berkely Breathed, who I love-- with BLOOM COUNTY. When he ended it and walked away, then came back to do a cartoon again, it didn't catch on. Phenomenons have a shelf life or a momentum, sometimes and if you stop it, then start up again, it doesn't always work. 

I'm hoping that's more the model of how this will go, as Leno creeps me out.

[Dalton]

Well, he's right. That's a pretty amazing thing to have happen. But in any case,if Fox does as Dalton says and plays SIMPSONS reruns, he *still* collects royalties from those, no?

I think, though, more so than the internet-buzz of Leno being a douchebag (here's fun-- type "Jay Leno is" into Google and see the first bunch of lines of suggestions that drop down), that Neilsen-rating America may more be affected by the smell of failure on Leno.

Everyone knows he tanked, doing the EXACT same act (Jaywalking, Headlines, etc.) so seeing the exact same act an hour later, the spell may be broken. Leno had, for his #1 status, the benefit of riding Carson's wake for years before Carson's departure, and then naturally just going into the spot, where it was assumed he was the "go-to/default" choice of which to watch. He was the Coca-Cola to the others Mr. Pibb or Mountain Dew; stuff with dedicated loyalists, but not the same wide acceptance.

I don't know if you can step back into that role, after it has been shaken. I mean, you probably can, carrying the soda analogy; Coke's "New Coke" was a fiasco, but it recovered after going back to what people expected. But I think we're just assuming Leno's appeal is a constant for whoever out there actually likes him simply because we can't fathom it. Like, "hell, he sucked before and they watched him, they'll watch him again."

But look at, say, Bill Cosby. THE COSBY SHOW was an institution and all of America loved it like a relative. But when it stopped then he started another show, people couldn't really be bothered. Or even Berkely Breathed, who I love-- with BLOOM COUNTY. When he ended it and walked away, then came back to do a cartoon again, it didn't catch on. Phenomenons have a shelf life or a momentum, sometimes and if you stop it, then start up again, it doesn't always work. 

I'm hoping that's more the model of how this will go, as Leno creeps me out.

Not a fan of Leno but I would be willing to make a bet that by November he will be within 300,000 viewers of Lettereman, either way, plus or minus.

I think some people let their love of Conan cloud reality. Leno is a shark and has hit upon a formula that affords him broad appeal.  He has perfected it.  He just goes down easy to some people.  Again, mind you, I don't think I've seen his show since the first night he took it over back in 1992.

[ScottE]

Well, he's right. That's a pretty amazing thing to have happen. But in any case,if Fox does as Dalton says and plays SIMPSONS reruns, he *still* collects royalties from those, no?

Conan is remembered as being a Simpsons writer prior to hosting Late Night, but he was only a writer on the show for 1 or 2 years and wrote a handful of episodes before leaving to host his show on NBC. I'd be surprised if there were more than 4 or 5 Simpsons episodes total that he actually wrote.

[ScottE]

Here we go, that was easy to find:

http://www.snpp.com/guides/epsbywriter.html#cobrien

He wrote the following episodes:

[9F06] New Kid on the Block
[9F10] Marge vs. the Monorail
[1F02] Homer Goes to College
[1F04] Treehouse of Horror IV (wraparounds)

[Dan]

[1F02] Homer Goes to College

Easily my favorite Simpsons ever.

[Cuppy]

I really wish for accurate neilson ratings in my lifetime.  With all the digital television out there, there must be a more accurate way to measure things.

In any event I watch all 5 late night shows based exclusively on who the guests are when i set up my DVR for the week.

[JCEFalconi]

I can't blame Jay for not wanting to retire. And I can't blame him for taking jobs that are offered to him, I can't even blame him for making the choice of toning down his wit to comatose levels.

But I can't help but think Leno, in the back of his mind, knew his 10 pm show would weaken Conan to the point of pushing him out the door. He knew he wasn't strong in ratings and without a lead-in he would be dead on the water.

If this was part of the reason for taking the 10 pm show, it really is a very cutthroat and unsavory way of doing business. He'd rather shit on a fellow comedian than threaten NBC with a contract with the competition the moment they try and take the job away from him. Even if he didn't mean it to play that way, it absolutely did. The only agent he's ever had was Helen Kushnick, he doesn't know any other way of doing business.

It sounds so hostile and angry, maybe he was pissed at Conan for angling for his job?: "He wants to play with the big boys, I can do it too"

 I agree with Dalton that middle america and above-50's won't care about this whole debacle. The only poetic justice we're left with is that the guy's blemished for good.  Not that it'll hurt his career, but he's a man that lives on mass appeal, he won't like knowing most of the people in town think he's a two-faced asshole.

[DerickA]

The word is that 60 to 70 percent of affiliates will clear space for Conan at launch if he goes to Fox.

[ExpendablesFan]

I think he'll have a show on Fox by fall. But it won't be on all affiliates at 11:00. Fox has it in their contracts with the affiliates, most of which they own any way, that they can put on a 5 day talk show if they want. I don't think Conan would have walked away from The Tonight Show unless he was sure there was another network waiting for him.  But I'd be happy if he did go to cable though. Fox doesn't have anything but early news and reruns to lead him in so his ratings still won't be on an even playing field with Letterman and Leno.

[noc]

The word is that 60 to 70 percent of affiliates will clear space for Conan at launch if he goes to Fox.

I'm not questioning this, but I'm curious as to where you get this sort of information.

[ExpendablesFan]

I'm not questioning this, but I'm curious as to where you get this sort of information.

It was on the Huffington Post and Deadline.com I think.

[Dalton]

I think he'll have a show on Fox by fall. But it won't be on all affiliates at 11:00. Fox has it in their contracts with the affiliates, most of which they own any way, that they can put on a 5 day talk show if they want. I don't think Conan would have walked away from The Tonight Show unless he was sure there was another network waiting for him.  But I'd be happy if he did go to cable though. Fox doesn't have anything but early news and reruns to lead him in so his ratings still won't be on an even playing field with Letterman and Leno.

I don't see it happening.  Yes, all affiliates have contracts to air the network programming, but if they're unhappy its a big problem (as we've seen with NBC recently).  They stand to loose too much money.  Cable is the place for a Conan, I think.

I guess we'll see.

[Dobbin]

I really wish for accurate neilson ratings in my lifetime.  With all the digital television out there, there must be a more accurate way to measure things.

In any event I watch all 5 late night shows based exclusively on who the guests are when i set up my DVR for the week.

I'm actually good friends with two lead programmers (software programmers, not, like, program-show) at Nielsen. I've said the same thing. Apparently, the thing that Neilsen sells that makes the distinction is granular data about *who* is in front of the screen at what time, not just if a set-top box is on and tuned to a given channel. It is the data services and analytics they sell moreso than the raw numbers.

But, so they tell me, more importantly, is the fact that the cable companies which rely on ad revenue for their profit, can't control the means of assessing the number of viewers; that there's some kind of legal reason which doesn't allow them to own that capability. Like, then they'd be setting the prices by their own internal, non-checkable numbers, or somesuch.


I keep on saying that it seems that the company is one innovation or law away from being totally outmoded and unneeded.

[Dobbin]

Here we go, that was easy to find:

http://www.snpp.com/guides/epsbywriter.html#cobrien

He wrote the following episodes:

[9F06] New Kid on the Block
[9F10] Marge vs. the Monorail
[1F02] Homer Goes to College
[1F04] Treehouse of Horror IV (wraparounds)

Wasn't he a producer on whole seasons worth of shows, though? Don't they get residuals, producers and directors? If they don't, I can't imagine how poor Asaad Kelada manages these days.